EPA vs Success Rate
EPA measures value added on a continuous scale, so a 60-yard touchdown is worth much more than a five-yard gain. Success rate is binary and asks whether the play gained enough yards for the down and distance.
Advanced Metrics
What is Expected Points Added (EPA) in college football?
EPA
In college football, Expected Points Added means: EPA estimates how much a play changed a team's expected points. EPA gives more context than raw yards because a five-yard gain on 3rd and 4 is more valuable than a five-yard gain on 3rd and 15.
Quick Answer
In college football, Expected Points Added means: EPA estimates how much a play changed a team's expected points. EPA gives more context than raw yards because a five-yard gain on 3rd and 4 is more valuable than a five-yard gain on 3rd and 15.
Definition
Expected Points Added measures the change in expected points before and after a play based on context such as down, distance, yard line, score, time, and possession.
Formula
Expected points after the play - expected points before the play
Example
If a team had 1.4 expected points before a play and 3.1 after it, the play added 1.7 EPA.
How to Interpret It
Positive EPA means the offense improved its scoring outlook on the play. Negative EPA means the defense reduced that outlook. A team's EPA per play is usually more useful than total EPA when comparing teams with different tempos.
Common Comparisons
EPA Per Play vs Total EPA
EPA per play normalizes efficiency by play count. Total EPA can reward teams that run more plays, while EPA per play is better for comparing pace-neutral efficiency.
Why It Matters
EPA gives more context than raw yards because a five-yard gain on 3rd and 4 is more valuable than a five-yard gain on 3rd and 15.
How CFB Track Uses It
On CFBTrack, EPA-related context helps explain why two plays with the same yardage can have different value. Use it alongside success rate, yards per play, opponent adjustment, and game state instead of treating raw yardage as the whole story.
Caveats
- EPA models can vary by data source.
- Garbage time and opponent strength can affect interpretation.
Related Glossary Terms
EPA Per PlayTotal EPA divided by total plays.Success RateThe percentage of plays that gain enough yardage based on down and distance.Win Probability AddedHow much a play changes a team's chance to win.Adjusted EfficiencyAn efficiency metric modified for context such as opponent strength, game location, tempo, garbage time, or game state.Adjusted Yards Per AttemptA passing efficiency stat that adjusts yards per attempt for touchdowns and interceptions.Air YardsThe yards a pass travels from the line of scrimmage to the catch point or target point.
Related CFB Track Pages
Last reviewed 2026-04-24