Success Rate vs EPA
Success rate rewards staying on schedule. EPA rewards the expected-points value of the play, so explosive touchdowns and high-leverage conversions separate more clearly in EPA.
Advanced Metrics
What is Success Rate in college football?
In college football, Success Rate means: The percentage of plays that gain enough yardage based on down and distance. It captures consistency better than total yards because it rewards plays that keep drives on schedule.
Quick Answer
In college football, Success Rate means: The percentage of plays that gain enough yardage based on down and distance. It captures consistency better than total yards because it rewards plays that keep drives on schedule.
Definition
Success rate measures play-to-play efficiency. A common definition counts a play as successful if it gains at least 50% of needed yards on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.
Example
On 1st and 10, a five-yard gain is successful. On 2nd and 10, a six-yard gain is not. On 3rd and 2, a two-yard gain is successful.
- 1st and 10 for 5 yards: successful because it gained at least 50% of needed yards.
- 2nd and 10 for 6 yards: not successful under the common 70% second-down threshold.
- 3rd and 2 for 2 yards: successful because it gained the first down.
How to Interpret It
Higher offensive success rate usually points to consistency. Lower defensive success rate allowed usually means the defense keeps opponents behind schedule.
Common Comparisons
Yards Per Play vs Success Rate
Yards per play can be lifted by a few long gains. Success rate better captures whether an offense repeatedly creates manageable next downs.
Why It Matters
It captures consistency better than total yards because it rewards plays that keep drives on schedule.
How CFB Track Uses It
CFBTrack uses source-provided success-rate fields to compare offensive consistency, defensive consistency, and net efficiency across teams and seasons.
Caveats
- Success thresholds can vary by model or data provider.
- CFBTrack displays CFBD-provided success rates as percentages when using advanced team stats.
Related Glossary Terms
Expected Points AddedEPA estimates how much a play changed a team's expected points.Rushing Success RateThe percentage of rushing plays that meet a success threshold.Passing Success RateThe percentage of passing plays that gain enough yardage based on down and distance.Yards Per PlayTotal offensive yards divided by offensive plays.Adjusted EfficiencyAn efficiency metric modified for context such as opponent strength, game location, tempo, garbage time, or game state.Adjusted Yards Per AttemptA passing efficiency stat that adjusts yards per attempt for touchdowns and interceptions.
Related CFB Track Pages
Last reviewed 2026-04-24