Season scatter

2025 All conferences: Win Percentage vs Offensive PPA

Build, explain, and share college football team-season scatter plots with outlier context, ranks, percentiles, and exact reproducible URLs.

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2025

All
Rows
136
Mode
Single season
Trendline
linear R2 0.416
Spearman
0.633

Controls

Tune the comparison

Every chart setting is encoded in the share URL. Regular/postseason split filters are not available for this combined season-stat dataset.

Era presets

Source-provided CFBD Predicted Points Added per offensive play.

Overall wins divided by total games, with ties counted as half wins.

X axis

Offensive PPAHigher is better

Y axis

Win PercentageHigher is better

Analyst mode

Scatter workspace

Win Percentage vs Offensive PPA

136 team-season rows in season mode. All eligible teams.

136 rowsAllPearson 0.645

Tell me what's weird

Offensive PPA explains a moderate share of Win Percentage movement in this sample (R2 0.416).

Biggest overperformer

Houston Cougars is 34.2% better than the trendline expectation.

Biggest underperformer

Arkansas Razorbacks is 56.5% worse than the trendline expectation.

Scatter chart. Scatter chart with 4 data series: Team seasons, Confidence high, Confidence low, and 1 more.

Most above trendline

Houston Cougars 2025

Defensive PPA: 0.106 | Turnover margin: 0.31

+34.2%

Oklahoma Sooners 2025

Defensive PPA: -0.016 | Turnover margin: -0.23

+34.1%

Western Michigan Broncos 2025

Defensive PPA: 0.053 | Turnover margin: 0.64

+29.6%

Fresno State Bulldogs 2025

Defensive PPA: 0.083 | Turnover margin: 0.38

+27.0%

Most below trendline

Arkansas Razorbacks 2025

Defensive PPA: 0.248 | Turnover margin: -0.92

-56.5%

Georgia State Panthers 2025

Defensive PPA: 0.275 | Turnover margin: -0.92

-38.2%

Air Force Falcons 2025

Defensive PPA: 0.402 | Turnover margin: -0.17

-37.5%

Boston College Eagles 2025

Defensive PPA: 0.235 | Turnover margin: -0.75

-34.5%

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Pinned teams

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Houston Cougars 2025

Big 12 Conference | 10-3

Offensive PPA
0.106 (#102)
Win Percentage
76.9% (#17)
Residual
34.2%

Similar team-seasons

Western Michigan Broncos 202510-4
Virginia Cavaliers 202511-3
Iowa State Cyclones 20258-4
Michigan Wolverines 20259-4
Alabama Crimson Tide 202511-4

Full data table

Sortable chart data

Showing 1-136 of 136
RecordLinks
Houston Cougars2025Big 12 Conference10-30.106 #102, 25th76.9% #17, 88th42.8%34.2%13
TeamCompare
Oklahoma Sooners2025Southeastern Conference10-30.107 #101, 26th76.9% #18, 87th42.8%34.1%13
TeamCompare
Western Michigan Broncos2025Mid-American Conference10-40.1 #106, 22th71.4% #25, 82th41.8%29.6%14
TeamCompare
Fresno State Bulldogs2025Mountain West9-40.103 #104, 24th69.2% #28, 80th42.2%27.0%13
TeamCompare
Virginia Cavaliers2025Atlantic Coast Conference11-30.173 #62, 55th78.6% #16, 89th53.2%25.4%14
TeamCompare
BYU Cougars2025Big 12 Conference12-20.22 #33, 76th85.7% #4, 98th60.5%25.3%14
TeamCompare
San Diego State Aztecs2025NCAA Division II independent schools9-40.118 #95, 30th69.2% #37, 73th44.6%24.7%13
TeamCompare
James Madison Dukes2025NCAA Division II independent schools12-20.225 #31, 78th85.7% #6, 96th61.2%24.5%14
TeamCompare
Texas Longhorns2025Southeastern Conference10-30.179 #58, 58th76.9% #20, 86th54.0%22.9%13
TeamCompare
Texas A&M Aggies2025Southeastern Conference11-20.233 #29, 79th84.6% #11, 93th62.4%22.2%13
TeamCompare
Georgia Bulldogs2025Southeastern Conference12-20.245 #26, 81th85.7% #5, 97th64.2%21.5%14
TeamCompare
Kennesaw State Owls2025Atlantic Sun Conference10-40.154 #79, 42th71.4% #23, 84th50.1%21.3%14
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Texas Tech Red Raiders2025Big 12 Conference12-20.246 #23, 84th85.7% #9, 94th64.4%21.3%14
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Indiana Hoosiers2025Big Ten Conference16-00.342 #5, 97th100.0% #1, 100th79.4%20.6%16
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Tulane Green Wave2025American Athletic Conference11-30.205 #41, 70th78.6% #15, 90th58.1%20.5%14
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Miami Hurricanes2025Atlantic Coast Conference13-30.223 #32, 77th81.3% #14, 90th60.8%20.5%16
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Louisville Cardinals2025Ohio Valley Conference9-40.153 #82, 40th69.2% #33, 76th49.9%19.3%13
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Iowa Hawkeyes2025Big Ten Conference9-40.153 #80, 41th69.2% #32, 77th50.0%19.2%13
TeamCompare
Minnesota Golden Gophers2025Big Ten Conference8-50.109 #100, 27th61.5% #53, 61th43.1%18.4%13
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Troy Trojans2025NCAA Division I-AA independent schools8-60.081 #114, 16th57.1% #59, 57th38.8%18.3%14
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Wake Forest Demon Deacons2025Atlantic Coast Conference9-40.159 #77, 44th69.2% #43, 69th50.9%18.3%13
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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers2025NCAA Division I FCS independent schools9-40.166 #71, 48th69.2% #45, 67th52.0%17.3%13
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Arizona Wildcats2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools9-40.167 #70, 49th69.2% #26, 81th52.2%17.0%13
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Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors2025Mountain West Conference9-40.167 #68, 50th69.2% #30, 79th52.2%17.0%13
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Arizona State Sun Devils2025Big 12 Conference8-50.132 #89, 35th61.5% #50, 64th46.7%14.8%13
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Alabama Crimson Tide2025Southeastern Conference11-40.208 #38, 73th73.3% #22, 84th58.5%14.8%15
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New Mexico Lobos2025Mountain West Conference9-40.182 #55, 60th69.2% #35, 75th54.6%14.7%13
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LSU Tigers2025Southeastern Conference7-60.087 #111, 19th53.8% #69, 50th39.7%14.1%13
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Old Dominion Monarchs2025Sun Belt10-30.236 #28, 80th76.9% #19, 87th63.0%14.0%13
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Arkansas State Red Wolves2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools7-60.09 #110, 19th53.8% #60, 56th40.2%13.6%13
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Oregon Ducks2025Big Ten Conference13-20.303 #12, 92th86.7% #3, 99th73.2%13.4%15
TeamCompare
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs2025Conference USA8-50.141 #86, 37th61.5% #51, 63th48.2%13.4%13
TeamCompare
East Carolina Pirates2025Conference Carolinas9-40.193 #49, 64th69.2% #27, 81th56.2%13.1%13
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Ole Miss Rebels2025Southeastern Conference13-20.307 #11, 93th86.7% #2, 99th74.0%12.7%15
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TCU Horned Frogs2025Mountain West Conference9-40.197 #48, 65th69.2% #40, 71th56.8%12.4%13
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Michigan Wolverines2025Big Ten Conference9-40.198 #47, 66th69.2% #34, 76th57.1%12.2%13
TeamCompare
Navy Midshipmen2025American Athletic Conference11-20.299 #15, 90th84.6% #10, 93th72.7%12.0%13
TeamCompare
Boise State Broncos2025Mountain West Conference9-50.175 #61, 56th64.3% #47, 66th53.4%10.9%14
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Ohio Bobcats2025Mid-American Conference9-40.207 #40, 71th69.2% #36, 74th58.3%10.9%13
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Illinois Fighting Illini2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools9-40.207 #39, 72th69.2% #31, 78th58.4%10.9%13
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Iowa State Cyclones2025Big 12 Conference8-40.191 #52, 62th66.7% #46, 67th56.0%10.7%12
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Coastal Carolina Chanticleers2025NCAA Division I FCS independent schools6-70.062 #120, 12th46.2% #80, 41th35.9%10.2%13
TeamCompare
Jacksonville State Gamecocks2025Western Athletic Conference9-50.187 #53, 61th64.3% #49, 64th55.3%9.0%14
TeamCompare
Ohio State Buckeyes2025Big Ten Conference12-20.327 #7, 96th85.7% #8, 95th77.0%8.7%14
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Pittsburgh Panthers2025Atlantic Coast Conference8-50.173 #63, 54th61.5% #56, 59th53.2%8.4%13
TeamCompare
California Golden Bears2025Atlantic Coast Conference7-60.125 #93, 32th53.8% #62, 55th45.6%8.3%13
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Washington State Cougars2025Pac-12 Conference7-60.126 #92, 33th53.8% #77, 44th45.8%8.0%13
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Miami (OH) RedHawks2025Mid-American Conference7-70.102 #105, 23th50.0% #79, 42th42.0%8.0%14
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Ball State Cardinals2025Mid-American Conference4-8-0.001 #133, 2th33.3% #99, 27th26.0%7.3%12
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Rice Owls2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools5-80.037 #126, 7th38.5% #97, 29th32.0%6.4%13
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Central Michigan Chippewas2025Mid-American Conference7-60.137 #88, 36th53.8% #63, 54th47.5%6.4%13
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools10-20.333 #6, 96th83.3% #13, 91th77.9%5.4%12
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Kent State Golden Flashes2025Mid-American Conference5-70.066 #118, 13th41.7% #89, 35th36.5%5.1%12
TeamCompare
Northwestern Wildcats2025Big Ten Conference7-60.146 #84, 39th53.8% #72, 47th48.9%4.9%13
TeamCompare
North Texas Mean Green2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools12-20.351 #2, 99th85.7% #7, 96th80.8%4.9%14
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Utah Utes2025Big 12 Conference11-20.347 #3, 99th84.6% #12, 92th80.1%4.6%13
TeamCompare
Akron Zips2025Mid-American Conference5-70.07 #117, 14th41.7% #83, 39th37.1%4.5%12
TeamCompare
SMU Mustangs2025Atlantic Coast Conference9-40.249 #22, 84th69.2% #38, 73th64.8%4.4%13
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Toledo Rockets2025Mid-American Conference8-50.204 #44, 68th61.5% #58, 58th57.9%3.7%13
TeamCompare
Wisconsin Badgers2025Big Ten Conference4-80.022 #130, 4th33.3% #115, 16th29.7%3.6%12
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Florida International Panthers2025Conference USA7-60.158 #78, 43th53.8% #67, 51th50.7%3.1%13
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Bowling Green Falcons2025Mid-American Conference4-80.027 #129, 5th33.3% #100, 27th30.4%2.9%12
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Buffalo Bulls2025Mid-American Conference5-70.081 #113, 17th41.7% #86, 37th38.8%2.9%12
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Missouri Tigers2025Southeastern Conference8-50.211 #35, 75th61.5% #54, 61th59.0%2.6%13
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Southern Miss Golden Eagles2025Sun Belt Conference7-60.163 #72, 47th53.8% #74, 46th51.5%2.4%13
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Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns2025Sun Belt Conference6-70.113 #98, 28th46.2% #81, 41th43.8%2.4%13
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New Mexico State Aggies2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools4-80.031 #128, 6th33.3% #107, 21th31.1%2.3%12
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Missouri State Bears2025Conference USA7-60.171 #67, 51th53.8% #70, 49th52.8%1.0%13
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Kentucky Wildcats2025Southeastern Conference5-70.093 #109, 20th41.7% #90, 34th40.7%1.0%12
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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets2025Atlantic Coast Conference9-40.272 #21, 85th69.2% #29, 79th68.5%0.7%13
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Clemson Tigers2025Atlantic Coast Conference7-60.178 #60, 56th53.8% #65, 53th53.8%0.0%13
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Duke Blue Devils2025Atlantic Coast Conference9-50.245 #25, 82th64.3% #48, 65th64.3%0.0%14
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Wyoming Cowboys2025Mountain West Conference4-80.049 #124, 9th33.3% #116, 15th33.8%-0.5%12
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Nebraska Cornhuskers2025Big Ten Conference7-60.182 #56, 59th53.8% #71, 48th54.5%-0.6%13
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UNLV Rebels2025Mountain West Conference10-40.298 #17, 88th71.4% #24, 83th72.5%-1.1%14
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Army Black Knights2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools7-60.185 #54, 61th53.8% #61, 56th55.0%-1.2%13
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Washington Huskies2025Big Ten Conference9-40.29 #19, 87th69.2% #44, 68th71.3%-2.0%13
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Delaware Blue Hens2025Conference USA7-60.193 #50, 64th53.8% #66, 52th56.2%-2.3%13
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North Carolina Tar Heels2025Atlantic Coast Conference4-80.061 #122, 10th33.3% #108, 21th35.8%-2.4%12
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NC State Wolfpack2025Atlantic Coast Conference8-50.244 #27, 81th61.5% #55, 60th64.2%-2.6%13
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Stanford Cardinal2025Atlantic Coast Conference4-80.063 #119, 13th33.3% #111, 19th36.1%-2.7%12
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Memphis Tigers2025American Athletic Conference8-50.245 #24, 83th61.5% #52, 62th64.3%-2.8%13
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App State Mountaineers2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools5-80.097 #108, 21th38.5% #95, 30th41.4%-2.9%13
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South Florida Bulls2025American Athletic Conference9-40.298 #18, 87th69.2% #39, 72th72.5%-3.2%13
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Georgia Southern Eagles2025Sun Belt Conference7-60.201 #45, 67th53.8% #68, 50th57.4%-3.6%13
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West Virginia Mountaineers2025Big 12 Conference4-80.071 #116, 15th33.3% #114, 16th37.3%-3.9%12
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UTSA Roadrunners2025American Athletic7-60.204 #43, 69th53.8% #76, 44th57.9%-4.1%13
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UConn Huskies2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools9-40.312 #9, 94th69.2% #41, 70th74.7%-5.5%13
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Nevada Wolf Pack2025NCAA Division I FCS independent schools3-90.034 #127, 7th25.0% #119, 13th31.5%-6.5%12
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UCF Knights2025Big 12 Conference5-70.149 #83, 39th41.7% #94, 31th49.4%-7.8%12
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Penn State Nittany Lions2025Big Ten Conference7-60.228 #30, 79th53.8% #73, 47th61.6%-7.8%13
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Northern Illinois Huskies2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools3-90.047 #125, 8th25.0% #120, 12th33.5%-8.5%12
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Kansas State Wildcats2025Big 12 Conference6-60.208 #37, 73th50.0% #78, 43th58.5%-8.5%12
TeamCompare
South Carolina Gamecocks2025Southeastern Conference4-80.105 #103, 24th33.3% #110, 19th42.5%-9.2%12
TeamCompare
Syracuse Orange2025Atlantic Coast Conference3-90.052 #123, 10th25.0% #122, 10th34.4%-9.4%12
TeamCompare
Marshall Thundering Herd2025Sun Belt Conference5-70.161 #73, 47th41.7% #91, 33th51.2%-9.6%12
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Sam Houston Bearkats2025Conference USA2-100.001 #132, 3th16.7% #131, 4th26.4%-9.7%12
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Tulsa Golden Hurricane2025American Athletic Conference4-80.112 #99, 27th33.3% #112, 18th43.7%-10.3%12
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USC Trojans2025Big Ten Conference9-40.344 #4, 98th69.2% #42, 70th79.7%-10.4%13
TeamCompare
Maryland Terrapins2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools4-80.114 #97, 29th33.3% #105, 23th43.9%-10.5%12
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Auburn Tigers2025Southeastern Conference5-70.173 #64, 53th41.7% #84, 39th53.1%-11.4%12
TeamCompare
Mississippi State Bulldogs2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools5-80.153 #81, 41th38.5% #96, 30th50.0%-11.5%13
TeamCompare
UTEP Miners2025Conference USA2-100.013 #131, 4th16.7% #132, 3th28.2%-11.6%12
TeamCompare
Utah State Aggies2025Mountain West Conference6-70.205 #42, 70th46.2% #82, 40th58.0%-11.9%13
TeamCompare
Temple Owls2025Big East Conference5-70.18 #57, 59th41.7% #93, 32th54.2%-12.5%12
TeamCompare
Michigan State Spartans2025Big Ten Conference4-80.131 #90, 34th33.3% #106, 22th46.5%-13.2%12
TeamCompare
Vanderbilt Commodores2025Southeastern Conference10-30.413 #1, 100th76.9% #21, 85th90.3%-13.4%13
TeamCompare
UL Monroe Warhawks2025Sun Belt Conference3-90.08 #115, 16th25.0% #124, 9th38.6%-13.6%12
TeamCompare
Tennessee Volunteers2025Southeastern Conference8-50.316 #8, 95th61.5% #57, 59th75.4%-13.8%13
TeamCompare
Colorado Buffaloes2025Big 12 Conference3-90.084 #112, 18th25.0% #117, 14th39.3%-14.3%12
TeamCompare
Florida Gators2025Southeastern Conference4-80.138 #87, 36th33.3% #103, 24th47.7%-14.4%12
TeamCompare
Baylor Bears2025Big 12 Conference5-70.193 #51, 63th41.7% #85, 38th56.1%-14.5%12
TeamCompare
Oklahoma State Cowboys2025Big 12 Conference1-11-0.012 #135, 1th8.3% #135, 1th24.4%-16.1%12
TeamCompare
Charlotte 49ers2025American Athletic Conference1-11-0.007 #134, 1th8.3% #133, 2th25.1%-16.8%12
TeamCompare
Rutgers Scarlet Knights2025American Athletic Conference5-70.21 #36, 74th41.7% #92, 33th58.9%-17.2%12
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Florida Atlantic Owls2025American Athletic Conference4-80.16 #76, 44th33.3% #102, 25th51.0%-17.7%12
TeamCompare
Kansas Jayhawks2025Big 12 Conference5-70.214 #34, 76th41.7% #88, 36th59.4%-17.8%12
TeamCompare
South Alabama Jaguars2025NCAA Division I FCS independent schools4-80.16 #75, 45th33.3% #109, 20th51.1%-17.8%12
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Cincinnati Bearcats2025Big 12 Conference7-60.299 #16, 89th53.8% #64, 53th72.6%-18.8%13
TeamCompare
Liberty Flames2025Conference USA4-80.167 #69, 50th33.3% #104, 24th52.2%-18.9%12
TeamCompare
Oregon State Beavers2025Pac-12 Conference2-100.062 #121, 11th16.7% #129, 5th35.8%-19.2%12
TeamCompare
UCLA Bruins2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools3-90.117 #96, 30th25.0% #123, 10th44.5%-19.5%12
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UAB Blazers2025American Athletic Conference4-80.178 #59, 57th33.3% #113, 17th53.8%-20.5%12
TeamCompare
Texas State Bobcats2025Western Athletic Conference7-60.311 #10, 93th53.8% #75, 45th74.5%-20.6%13
TeamCompare
Massachusetts Minutemen2025Mid-American0-12-0.031 #136, 0th0.0% #136, 0th21.4%-21.4%12
TeamCompare
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders2025Conference USA3-90.142 #85, 38th25.0% #118, 13th48.3%-23.3%12
TeamCompare
Eastern Michigan Eagles2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools4-80.199 #46, 67th33.3% #101, 26th57.2%-23.9%12
TeamCompare
Purdue Boilermakers2025Big Ten Conference2-100.097 #107, 21th16.7% #130, 4th41.4%-24.7%12
TeamCompare
San José State Spartans2025Mountain West3-90.172 #66, 52th25.0% #121, 11th52.9%-27.9%12
TeamCompare
Virginia Tech Hokies2025Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association3-90.172 #65, 53th25.0% #125, 8th52.9%-27.9%12
TeamCompare
Colorado State Rams2025Mountain West Conference2-100.122 #94, 31th16.7% #128, 6th45.2%-28.6%12
TeamCompare
Florida State Seminoles2025NCAA Division I FBS independent schools5-70.301 #14, 90th41.7% #87, 36th72.9%-31.3%12
TeamCompare
Boston College Eagles2025Atlantic Coast Conference2-100.161 #74, 46th16.7% #127, 7th51.2%-34.5%12
TeamCompare
Air Force Falcons2025NJCAA independent schools4-80.287 #20, 86th33.3% #98, 28th70.8%-37.5%12
TeamCompare
Georgia State Panthers2025Coastal Athletic Association Football Conference1-110.13 #91, 33th8.3% #134, 1th46.5%-38.2%12
TeamCompare
Arkansas Razorbacks2025Southeastern Conference2-100.302 #13, 91th16.7% #126, 7th73.2%-56.5%12
TeamCompare

How to read it

Quadrants and caveats

Strong Offensive PPA, strong Win Percentage

Teams scoring well on both selected axes.

Weaker Offensive PPA, strong Win Percentage

Teams succeeding on the Y axis without matching X-axis strength.

Strong Offensive PPA, weaker Win Percentage

Teams with X-axis strength that did not translate to the Y axis.

Weaker Offensive PPA, weaker Win Percentage

Teams trailing the sample on both selected axes.

Documentation

Scatter methodologyData sourcesData status
What does the trendline show?

The trendline estimates the relationship between Offensive PPA and Win Percentage for the current filtered sample. It is descriptive, not proof of causation.

What does above the trendline mean?

Above the trendline means a team performed better than expected on the selected Y axis after accounting for the selected X axis. For lower-is-better metrics, CFBTrack flips the residual so positive still means better.

Why are some defensive or penalty axes reversed?

When Orient good teams up/right is active, lower-is-better metrics such as Defensive PPA, penalties, and turnovers are visually reversed so stronger results move up and right while raw values remain visible in labels and exports.

Can I cite this exact chart?

Yes. Copy chart link preserves the selected season mode, axes, conference, trendline, pins, labels, sort, and filters in the URL.