Advanced Metrics

What is Win Probability Added in college football?

Name: CFBTrack College Football Data
Creator: CFBTrack
License: https://cfbtrack.com/privacy#dataset-license

WPA

In college football, Win Probability Added means: How much a play changes a team's chance to win. It highlights the most important plays in a game, not just the most efficient ones.

Back to glossary Jump to hub entry

Quick Answer

In college football, Win Probability Added means: How much a play changes a team's chance to win. It highlights the most important plays in a game, not just the most efficient ones.

Definition

Win Probability Added measures the change in win probability caused by a play.

Formula

Win probability after the play - win probability before the play

Why It Matters

It highlights the most important plays in a game, not just the most efficient ones.

How CFB Track Uses It

CFBTrack uses Win Probability Added context alongside related efficiency, explosiveness, and opponent-adjusted metrics so advanced stat pages are easier to compare.

Win ProbabilityThe estimated chance a team has to win at a specific moment.Expected Points AddedEPA estimates how much a play changed a team's expected points.LeverageThe importance of a play or situation based on how much it can affect the game outcome.Adjusted EfficiencyAn efficiency metric modified for context such as opponent strength, game location, tempo, garbage time, or game state.Adjusted Yards Per AttemptA passing efficiency stat that adjusts yards per attempt for touchdowns and interceptions.Air YardsThe yards a pass travels from the line of scrimmage to the catch point or target point.

Browse team stats

Last reviewed 2026-04-24