AP upset archive
Biggest College Football Upsets of 2016
The season's 25 strongest AP-defined upsets, led by the quality of the ranked team defeated and the game-time ranking gap.
25
Upsets ranked
22
Unranked winners
24
Market-confirmed
Top 25 AP upsets
- Historic upsetWeek 8Home
Unranked Penn State 24, No. 2 Ohio State 21
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 48/50 · Rank gap 48/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 20-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
96
AP score
Full Game · 2016 Penn State vs. Ohio State (Regular Season Full Game)
- Historic upsetWeek 11Home
Unranked Iowa 14, No. 2 Michigan 13
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 48/50 · Rank gap 48/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 18.5-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
96
AP score
- Historic upsetWeek 11Road
Unranked Pittsburgh 43, No. 3 Clemson 42
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 46/50 · Rank gap 46/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 19-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
92
AP score
Highlight · 2016 Clemson vs. Pittsburgh (Regular Season Full Game)
- Historic upsetWeek 12Home
Unranked Houston 36, No. 3 Louisville 10
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 46/50 · Rank gap 46/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 16-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
92
AP score
- Historic upsetWeek 11Road
Unranked USC 26, No. 4 Washington 13
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 44/50 · Rank gap 44/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 10-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
88
AP score
- Historic upsetWeek 6Home
Unranked Navy 46, No. 6 Houston 40
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 40/50 · Rank gap 40/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 17-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
80
AP score
- Historic upsetWeek 10Home
Unranked Mississippi State 35, No. 7 Texas A&M 28
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 38/50 · Rank gap 38/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 13-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
76
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 9Home
Unranked Texas 35, No. 8 Baylor 34
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 36/50 · Rank gap 36/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 3.5-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
72
AP score
Highlight · 2016 Texas vs. Baylor (Regular Season Full Game)
- Major upsetWeek 11Home
Unranked Georgia 13, No. 8 Auburn 7
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 36/50 · Rank gap 36/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 8-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
72
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 3Home
No. 10 Louisville 63, No. 2 Florida State 20
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 48/50 · Rank gap 16/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 4.5-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
64
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 1Home
Unranked Texas 50, No. 10 Notre Dame 47
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 32/50 · Rank gap 32/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 2.5-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
64
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 9Home
Unranked Oklahoma State 37, No. 10 West Virginia 20
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 32/50 · Rank gap 32/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 3-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
64
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 10Home
Unranked Arkansas 31, No. 10 Florida 10
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 32/50 · Rank gap 32/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 3.5-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
64
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 11Road
Unranked Ole Miss 29, No. 10 Texas A&M 28
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 32/50 · Rank gap 32/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 11-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
64
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 1Neutral
Unranked Florida State 45, No. 11 Ole Miss 34
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 30/50 · Rank gap 30/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 5-point favorite · Pregame win chance —
60
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 3Home
Unranked California 50, No. 11 Texas 43
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 30/50 · Rank gap 30/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 6-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
60
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 8Home
Unranked SMU 38, No. 11 Houston 16
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 30/50 · Rank gap 30/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 24-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
60
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 12Road
Unranked Oregon 30, No. 11 Utah 28
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 30/50 · Rank gap 30/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 10.5-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
60
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 13Road
Unranked Kentucky 41, No. 11 Louisville 38
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 30/50 · Rank gap 30/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 26-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
60
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 6Road
No. 23 Florida State 20, No. 10 Miami 19
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 32/50 · Rank gap 26/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 1.5-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
58
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 5Road
Unranked North Carolina 37, No. 12 Florida State 35
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 28/50 · Rank gap 28/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 12-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
56
AP score
- Major upsetCFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PRESENTED BY AT&TNeutral
No. 3 Clemson 35, No. 1 Alabama 31
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 50/50 · Rank gap 4/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 6-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
54
AP score
Full Game · 2016 Alabama vs. Clemson (National Championship Full Game)
- Major upsetWeek 3Road
Unranked North Dakota State 23, No. 13 Iowa 21
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 26/50 · Rank gap 26/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 14.5-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
52
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 9Home
Unranked Wyoming 30, No. 13 Boise State 28
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 26/50 · Rank gap 26/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 12.5-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
52
AP score
- Major upsetWeek 10Road
Unranked TCU 62, No. 13 Baylor 22
View game details →AP evidence · primary
Opponent strength 26/50 · Rank gap 26/50
Market evidence · supporting
Winner closed as a 9-point underdog · Pregame win chance —
52
AP score
How the ranking works
An upset qualifies only when the winner was unranked or ranked below an AP Top 25 opponent at kickoff. Regular-season games use that game's AP poll week; postseason games use the last regular-season AP poll before bowl and playoff results. The 100-point score splits evenly between defeated-opponent strength and ranking gap. Betting lines and pregame win probability are shown separately as supporting evidence and never change the AP score, so missing market data cannot lower a game.