What schedule strength tries to measure
Strength of schedule estimates the difficulty of the opponents a team faced. Some models use opponent records, some use efficiency ratings, and some weight venue or timing. No version is perfect, but all are trying to avoid treating every win as equal.
The most useful schedule reads look at distribution, not just one rank. A schedule with two elite opponents and many weak ones creates a different test than a schedule with no easy weeks and fewer top-end games.
- Road wins are usually harder than home wins.
- Conference depth changes how difficult an average week is.
- A ranked opponent at kickoff may not stay ranked by season's end.